Armenia

By Nessuna

“Make sure you don’t miss the solar eclipse today in the afternoon,” my dad voice on the phone said, waking me up in the morning. “Tell your mom too, so she doesn’t get scared.” Half-awake, my mind immediately pictured a crowd running scared, and chaos in the streets of Yerevan creating panic and disorder while the sun slowly vanished in the gloomy sky. Seriously, I love my dad’s sense of humor, and when I got to work, I searched for info on the web and found the following.

On Wednesday, 2006 March 29, a total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from within a narrow corridor which traverses half the Earth. The path of the Moon’s umbral shadow begins in Brazil and extends across the Atlantic, northern Africa, and central Asia where it ends at sunset in western Mongolia. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon’s penumbral shadow, which includes the northern two thirds of Africa, Europe, and central Asia.

According to the Director of the Byurakan Observatory of the National Academy of Science in Armenia, Hayk Harutyunyan, the solar eclipse could be observed only partially in Armenia. Weather permitting, it was possible to see 91.8 % of the sun covered and is believed to be the first solar eclipse of the 21st century. If you missed it you might have to wait years for your next chance to see it.

This is a fantastic chance to see a great eclipse, and should be made the most of by Europeans in particular, as it will be their last easy chance to see a total eclipse of the Sun in many years. The next total eclipse in Eurasia is 1 August 2008, visible in central Russia, Mongolia and China, for more adventurous travelers; then 22 July 2009, visible in India and China; then 20 March 2015, visible from the Faroes, if the sky is clear. The next total eclipse of the Sun in mainland Europe is in 2026.

Honestly, nothing scary happened. Supposedly the eclipse started at 15:02 local time, but it wasn’t until 16:00 that I noticed a change in the illumination (the highest phase was at 16:20). It was about when everybody in the office glued themselves to the windows with floppy disks in their hands to pay a tribute to the celestial event.

It was only afterwards that I found the following information on Wikipedia.

There is an urban myth that it is safe to view a solar eclipse through the film of a floppy removed from its case. Despite some anecdotal support, this is in fact dangerous and can lead to retina damage and even blindness.

There was a small discussion about the eclipse on one of the Armenian forums, followed by photos posted online.

RFE/RL reports that Richard Hovannisian, one of the Armenian Diaspora’s most respected Genocide Historians has launched a scathing attack on the Armenian Government and the President himself. Very few local Armenians would disagree with what Hovannisian is quoted as saying. However, it is very rare that prominent Armenians in the Diaspora speak out like this.

Richard Hovannisian, a senior professor of Armenian and Near Eastern History at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), claimed that domestic policies pursued by the administration of President Robert Kocharian have alienated a large part of the country’s population and the influential Armenian community in the United States.

“Watching from the outside, we follow with pain the continuing electoral and other illegalities committed in Armenia,” he told RFE/RL in an interview. “We would have loved to see freedom of speech and thought in Armenia, instead of repression, secret police persecution and lies spread by state media.”

However, it should be pointed out that the scholar is the father of Armenia’s U.S. born first Foreign Minister, Raffi Hovannisian, who has found himself the target of personal attacks on his name through State TV as well as from the state security apparatus. Hovannisian has even been evicted and locked out of his own office allegedly as part of a campaign to frustrate his plans to contest the 2007 parliamentary elections.

“If Raffi Hovannisian had kept silent, acted like a ‘benign’ Diaspora Armenian here and did not attempt to engage in politics, they would have not only kept his office open but also accepted and shown him on their television,” said Richard Hovannisian. “I feel sorry for the individuals who are now suppressing him. If they had been in his place, they would not have even thought about moving to Armenia [from the United States in 1990].”

The veteran scholar claimed that his critical views on Armenia’s current leadership are shared by a growing number of Armenian-Americans. “I personally know dozens of individuals who say that they will not donate money to Armenia anymore because they have lost faith,” he said.

[…]

[…] we must not become a failed state. If this state also fails, we will have no future,” he added. “As long as our rulers fail to realize that they are not on the right track, that they must accept the people’s will, that they must allow political freedoms, I won’t be able to say that there will be positive change in this country.”

No kidding. I hope the guys at the MCA are keeping note of all of this although many are already critical of Armenia’s inclusion. Unfortunately, Jeff at Voch Me Ban probably got it right in a recent post.

It’s payday! Armenia gets a nice check for $235 million. Sec of State Rice says, “These are important commitments and the United States stands ready to help Armenia to ensure that its upcoming elections are free and fair,” Kocharian is laughing all the way to the bank.

Still, the ANCA apparently put on a nice show of theatrics in Washington to mark the occasion. Business as usual in Armenia and the Diaspora then…

Stepan Danielyan, President of Collaboration for Democracy Center NGO, has established a new blog for Human Rights in Armenia website called "Nor Darperak" in Armenian or "New Dimension" in English.  After speaking to him, he suggested that the HRA website needs to have a way to communicate and interact with the people regarding certain topics. 
As he explains […]

Armenian Forests Community Project, Gosh, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Armenian Forests Community Project, Gosh, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

An article will be published in the next edition of Hetq Online.

Armenian Forests Community Project, Ijevan, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Armenian Forests Community Project, Ijevan, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

An article will be published in the next edition of Hetq Online.

Ijevan-Dilijan Road, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Leaving Ijevan for Yerevan earlier this afternoon the roads were full of people, old and young, transporting wood home to use as fuel and for heating. As an example, the kid in the photo above said that even though his village now had gas, it was too expensive for his family to afford. Wood was the cheapest and most readily available alternative. No wonder then, that deforestation in Armenia has reached catastrophic levels although contrary to popular opinion, this can not be put down to the energy crisis of the early 1990s.

Some would even argue that it is not even socially vulnerable families that have no option but to use wood fires even in Yerevan that are responsible. Simply, oversight mechanisms are not working, corruption is rampant, and businessmen and officials have a lot to gain from the wholescale destruction of Armenia’s last remaining forests. Environmentalists warn that there won’t be any left by 2024 at the present rate of deforestation.

Even so, several local NGOs and international organizations are working on this problem, and in recent years have actually achieved success in saving nature reserves such as Shikahogh — something I wrote about for Oneworld.net.

Government-connected businessmen and state officials engaged in the illegal export of timber from Armenia are mostly to blame for the former Soviet republic’s dwindling number of forests. Whereas 11 per cent of the republic was covered by forests in 1991, the figure stands at below 8 per cent today. Environmentalists warn that unless current trends are reversed, Armenia will be forestless by 2024.

[…]

Meanwhile, public outcry has at least united NGOs in Armenia. Dozens of NGOs working within a coalition to save the nature reserve say that an alternate route should be taken and, already, extensive media coverage has forced the government to suspend construction for 15 days. However, while construction in the reserve has not yet started, bulldozers are still clearing the way for the access road.

[…]

Concern over the fate of Shikahogh and Mtnadzor has also spread far beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet republic. In the influential Armenian Diaspora, Carolyn Mugar, founder of the Armenian Tree Project and Executive Director of the US Farm Aid organization, has already started a letter writing campaign to lobby the Armenian Embassy in Washington.

Since then, the Minister for Transport and Communication, Andranik Manukian, has told the ArmInfo news agency that the government would now look at alternate routes and requested that environmentalists put in as much energy into securing extra finance for the project as they have in protesting. Paradoxically, he also declared that this “change of heart” had nothing to do with the campaign by environmentalists to save Shikahogh.

One thing that struck me about the campaign to save Shikahogh was how a variety of people from all walks of life became involved, and despite all the odds, actually managed to force the Armenian government to overturn its initial decision to construct a highway through it. There were local Armenians, foreigners and Diaspora — young and old, rich and poor, pro-government as well as supporters of the opposition.

Basically, encompassing several issues such as community involvement in decision-making, anti-corruption initiatives and education as well as the environment itself, what I saw was perhaps the most only genuine manifestation of a pro-democracy movement in Armenia today. Therefore, it was with great pleasure that I accompanied the Armenian Forests NGO to Ijevan and Gosh in the Tavoush region of the Republic to see one of their USAID-funded projects aiming to involve local communities in planting trees.

Armenian Forests NGO began in 2002 as a project of the Tufenkian Foundation, and was registered as an independent organization in February 2003. The NGO was founded by the successful entrepreneur, James Tufenkian, who works to advance social justice through his business and philanthropic endeavors. Armenian Forests NGO is the outgrowth of his concern and determination to do what is needed to protect and restore Armenia’s threatened forests while helping to create jobs and build the economy.

As a means of reclaiming, protecting, and expanding forested areas, Armenian Forests NGO involves individuals, communities, other NGOs, government, and businesses in a variety of solutions on multiple fronts including changes in policies, norms of thinking and action, economic improvement, public education, and media advocacy.

Ijevan, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Accompanying Armenian Forests’ Mher Sharoyan in addition to myself for today’s trip to see trees being planted were three journalists from Hetq Online, A1 Plus and Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty’s Max Liberty. Vartuhi will be writing an article on the day’s events for Hetq and I’ll likely be putting together a proper photo essay, but for now a few pics taken of faces encountered along the way. Later, I’ll post some photos of the tree planting in Ijevan and Gosh itself.

In the meantime, Hetq Online has a lot of material in the ecology section of its website.

Incidentally, Armenian Forests were one of the NGOs involved in the campaign to prevent the construction by a senior government official of yet another cafe in central Yerevan. I posted some pics of that event here. There’s also an interview I conducted with Jeffrey Tufenkian here.

Left to Right: Journalists from Hetq Online, A1 Plus and Max Liberty, Gosh, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Mher Sharoyan, Gosh, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Protest Presidential Elections, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

Following on from what appears to be the continuing persecution of Raffi Hovannisian as we enter pre-election year in Armenia, it seems only right to post the following press release from his newly founded Heritage party. Given that this is not the first time that “undesirables” have faced eviction from their premises, and that this is just one in a series of incidents experienced by Hovannisian and even his wife, it seems particularly relevant given news of the MCA compact signed in Washington yesterday.

IN DEFENSE OF HERITAGE

Since March 4, 2006, Chairman Raffi K. Hovannisian of the Heritage Party and the staff of its central office have been forcibly denied the right of entry into their own place of work, which under the existing contract is theirs until June of this year.

Considering this to be a flagrant infringement, on the part of the incumbent presidency and its ruling clique, of fundamental civil liberties and political freedoms, MP and chairman of the National Democrats’ Alliance Arshak Sadoyan has launched an initiative whereby he has petitioned all political parties in Armenia as well as institutions that are interested in the establishment of democracy in the Republic to raise their voice of protest against this blatant lawlessless.

The authors of this initiative declare that the letter is open to all political forces and public and private organizations which choose to demonstrate their solidarity on this matter.

OPEN LETTER TO ARMENIA’S CITIZENS AND ALL INSTITUTIONS INTERESTED IN ESTABLISHMENT OF DEMOCRACY IN THE REPUBLIC

On March 4, 2006, a criminal break-in took place at the premises which Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K. Hovannisian has been leasing for more than 12 years. Without advance notice on legal warrant, the lock of the Heritage Party headquarters’ main outer door was smashed and replaced with another.

As a result, the chairman of the Heritage Party and the staff of its central office have been forcibly denied the right of entry into their own place of work, which under the existing contract is theirs until June of this year. The absolute closure of access to Heritage’s official seal, documents, computers, and means of telecommunication has brought the party’s activities to a standstill, paralyzing the regular contact between its headquarters and regional offices.

Raffi Hovannisian and the executive board of the Heritage Party have issued formal and telephonic petitions to Prime Minister Andranik Margarian, Attorney General Aghvan Hovsepian, and Police Chief Haik Harutiunian regarding this unlawful act. No response, explanation, or comment has been received to date from the law enforcement bodies.

In fact, the constitutional order has once again been violated in Armenia. A leading opposition party that has stood out of late with its civic and public initiatives has effectively and illegally been shut down. We consider this to be a flagrant infringement, on the part of the incumbent presidency and its ruling clique, of fundamental civil liberties and political freedoms.

We demand that the Armenian authorities reopen the Heritage Party headquarters immediately and implement measures guaranteeing its normal, unfettered, and secure operations.

Forum of Intellectuals of Armenia

National Democrats’ Alliance

Republic Party

National Rebirth Party

National Democratic Union

New Times Party

Social Democrat Hnchak Party

Social Democratic Party of Armenia

Social Ecological Party of Armenia

Democratic Motherland Party

Motherland and Pride Union

National Unity Mission Party

Armenian Arian Union

Armenian Center for Cultural Assistance and Strategy

“Human Rights 96” NGO

“The Officer’s Pride” NGO

Anti-globalists’ Union

“People are the Country’s Owners” Union

Opposition protest outcome of 2003 Presidential Elections, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

RFE/RL reports that the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Armenian Foreign Minister participated in the signing ceremony of a compact that will see Armenia receive $235 million in financial assistance over the next five years. According to RFE/RL the signing and disbursal of the money had been delayed “pending a demonstration by Armenia of its commitment to strengthening democratic institutions and ensuring fair elections in 2007-08.”

The money from the MCC will be disbursed over a five-year period and will be contingent on Armenia’s policy performance in three areas: “ruling justly, investing in people, and encouraging economic freedom.” More specifically, Rice said that the United States expects Armenia to deliver on its pledges to improve the conduct of national elections.

“Armenia must continue to advance its democratic reforms,” she said. “International and domestic monitors did express concerns about the conduct of the recent constitutional referendum. And the Armenian government has acknowledged these difficulties and pledged to improve the conduct of the elections to be held in 2007 and 2008.”

Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian agreed. “The elections of 2007 and 2008 that you refer to will test our democratic practices,” he said. “Our task until then is to partner with the United States and European governments to implement the necessary corrective steps.”

Lovely. Declarative statements and no sign of anything changing on the ground in terms of democratization, although the money can apparently be stopped if next year’s parliamentary elections and the 2008 presidential election resemble those that preceded them. Unfortunately, however, Washington-based analyst Richard Giragosian is not so convinced.

[…] according to Giragosian, “the feeling is that the Armenians have not really learned any lessons from past electoral violations and are still likely to resort to their habitual ballot rigging.” The key question, he said, is one of degree, that is, how blatant will the vote rigging and other types of election fraud be in practice.

I hope that the guys at the MCA Monitoring Blog will continue to keep a close eye on how things develop. According to them the MCA is already getting hammered, and most recently in an article published by Rolling Stone.

In a pattern that has become a hallmark of the administration, however, Bush’s aid initiative — the Millennium Challenge Corporation — has become an object lesson in dramatic ideas followed by disastrous action. Over the past three months, Rolling Stone has reviewed the MCC’s “compacts” with foreign countries, compared the work of similar agencies and spoken with a wide range of supporters and critics — including many of the conservative insiders responsible for creating the program. Instead of hiring aid experts, the administration at first staffed the MCC with conservative ideologues. Rather than partnering with other countries, the White House operated on its own, disconnected from the rest of the world. And when experts criticized the new agency, the administration responded with a bunker mentality, refusing to talk to detractors and learn from its mistakes.

[…]

In some cases, the MCC appears to be using aid to reward countries that support the president’s war on terror — even though it is not supposed to base assistance on political favoritism. Georgia, which has served as a base for U.S. military operations, received $295.3 million from the MCC — despite corruption and human-rights abuses that should make it ineligible for assistance under the MCC’s own guidelines. “I see an awful lot of politics in this,” says Fiona Hill, an expert on the former Soviet states at the Brookings Institution. “Georgia has taken steps back in terms of rights and freedoms.” Testifying before Congress, even Applegarth acknowledged that the aid to Georgia involved what he discreetly referred to as an “element of judgment.”

Azerbaijani Prisoner of War (PoW), Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

RFE/RL reports that the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has again threatened resuming hostilities in order to resolve the long-standing conflict with Armenia over the mainy Armenian inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Addressing members of the former KGB, the Azerbaijani National Security Service (NSS), Aliyev did at least state that there was still the opportunity for the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Of course, this could all be brinkmanship, but it’s nonetheless dangerous.

“I think that the peace potential has not yet been exhausted. Therefore, we will of course remain faithful to the peace process,” Aliev said in remarks broadcast by the Azerbaijani TV station ANS. “But at the same time, we must be ready for any eventuality and that is why Azerbaijan has stepped up its army building efforts in recent years.

“Our military spending has increased over the past years, and it will increase further. This is our sovereign right, this is our job. Our country is in a state of war.”

“The opposite side must know that Azerbaijan is capable of securing its territorial integrity through war at any moment,” he added.

In response to Aliyev’s increasingly bellicose statments in recent months, the Armenian President Robert Kocharian has threatened to recognize the independence of the self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. Sounds a little dangerous to me and pretty much akin to a declaration of war from the Armenian side, but anyway, the European Union has already stepped in to criticize Aliyev’s statement.

“An attempt on the Azeri side to resolve the conflict by military means will have very serious consequences,” Peter Semneby told RFE/RL. “It may not be successful in the first place, and it will also seriously damage Azerbaijan in terms of its investment climate and reliability as a partner.”

Aliev’s chief foreign policy aide, Novruz Mamedov, was quick to dismiss the warning. “If Azerbaijan can indeed discredit itself as a partner if it starts war to liberate its own lands, how come that Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories in a war and has kept them under occupation for 15 years, but this has not discredited Armenia anyhow?” Mamedov told the Azerbaijani ATV channel.

Meanwhile, the international mediators insist that the peace process may still be salvaged but seem undecided about their next steps. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said last week that they will either visit the conflict zone or arrange another round of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations soon.

It’s difficult to say what will happen next. Certainly, while it is unlikely that war would resume in the next year at least, increased military spending in Azerbaijan might put the Republic in a position to win back Karabakh and territory currently under its control within the next five. Today.az reports that others consider that failure to resolve the conflict will cripple Armenia economically while the rest of the South Caucasus moves ahead.

“The resolution of conflict in the South Caucasus is one of the EU’s priorities. It signals to more active attraction of the organization to the resolution of the problem situation,” Semneby underlined in his interview for Radio Liberty. EU’s mandate in the issue has been expanded and resolution of conflict situation has been included in it.

“Unless the conflict is resolved, Armenia might turn out in isolation,” the Swiss diplomat stressed.

Meanwhile, some less than moderate voices in neighboring Turkey believe that the time for negotiations is over and that Azerbaijan should indeed break the 1994 ceasefire. A Major General reservist says that after resolving what I assume he means are Azerbaijan’s own internal political problems, hostilities should resume.

“Neither the EU nor the US will prevent Azerbaijan from making an attempt to resolve the problem. Turkey must be ready to give any help because Azerbaijan is important country for the world powers.”

According to some analysts, Armenian-backed forces would not necessarily be in such a favorable position if the war was to resume. In a recent interview with Hetq Online, for example, the Caucasus Editor of the Institute of War & Peace Reporting summarized Armenian victory on the battlefield in the early 1990s as contributable to three issues.

I see the end of the conflict in 1994 as being the result of three factors: the Armenians were better prepared and more disciplined; Azerbaijan was in political chaos for most of the duration of the conflict; the Russians helped both sides but undoubtedly helped the Armenians more.

Meanwhile, nationalists in Armenia have stated in the past two months that with or without a phased peace settlement, war will resume in the future and therefore, the defensive positions that Armenian forces currently hold are vital in preparing for what they say is now inevitable. Seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me, and I can only hope that international pressure is put on Azerbaijan to concede with regards to the status of Nagorno Karabakh.

Incidently, a recent analysis by Noyan Tapan’s David Petrosyan which I can’t unfortunately find at the moment reckoned that neither side would be able to gain territory from the other in case of a new outbreak of war in and around Karabakh. Instead, fighting would claim several thousand lives and end with a new ceasefire several weeks later. What would happen in the future, however, is anybody’s guess.

Currently, Armenia’s armed forces number 60,000 with a military budget standing at 6.4 percent of GDP to make $162 million in 2005. Azerbaijan has around the same number of troops (67,000-72,000), but has increased military spending in 2006 to reach $650 million or 3.2 percent of GDP. When it comes to taking defensive positions, however, it seems likely that air power will play its part and for now, neither side seems well equipped.

Although there are 30 Mig 29 fighters in Armenia they are apparently attached to the Russian base in Gyumri so are hardly likely to be used in any fighting in Karabakh. Other than that, both sides have only a few dozen strike or interceptor aircraft. On this basis alone, until Azerbaijan increases its military budget to $1 billion (equal to Armenia’s entire state budget) and specifically strengthens its airforce, I don’t think there will be war just yet.

However, information on Azerbaijan’s military spending is hard to come by.

If anyone knows of any links to any links to a breakdown of how that extra money is being spent, please post them. Incidently, Nagorno Karabakh apparently has around 20,000 troops with 60,000 reservists, but this figure sounds too high to me considering emigration from the territory since the 1994 ceasefire. Armenia has between 32-350,000 reservists while Azerbaijan boasts between 82,000-1.3 milion due to its larger size.

Even so, for now at least, the matter is how do you take dug-in and mined defensive positions without an airforce or a large number of surface-surface missiles. Someone needs to be monitoring the procurement of arms in both Republics, and Azerbaijan in particular.

Kjell Engebretsen, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Country Director, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

After mentioning the problem of Internally Placed Persons (IDPs) as a result of cross border shelling, landmines, the deterioration of infrastructure and a lack of investment in areas bordering Azerbaijan it was coincidental but interesting to be asked by Hetq Online to interview the new Country Director of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) this morning. I had previously interviewed Engebretsen’s predecessor a year and half or so ago.

Central to this brief interview was the issue of possibly inflated figure for the number of refugees and IDPs in Armenia and the necessity for allowing them to return to their homes in the event of a peace deal being signed to end the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Regardless of what many Armenians might think, the return of territory and the right to return for Azerbaijani refugees will be part of any deal. There is no question about that.

OK: When I interviewed your predecessor, Tim Straight, about a year and a half ago, he mentioned that a survey on Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) was going to be taken in Armenia in cooperation with the Armenian Government. This is a new focus for the NRC, and I wondered has the survey been held and what were the findings?

KE: It was held and the result was that the figures for the number of IDPs in Armenia decreased considerably from 70,000 to 8,000.

OK: That’s quite a decrease. We’re talking about those regions of Armenia bordering Azerbaijan where there’s still a problem with landmines as well as a lack of infrastructure and investment so what’s the reason for this reduction?

KE: That’s still a problem, but I don’t know what the reason is for this reduction. However, I would suspect that the explanation is the same when it comes to refugees and the population in general. A lot of people flee the country for a while. They go to Russia or the United States and we hope that they’ll come back one day.

OK: There’s been a survey on IDPs, but another contentious issue is the number of refugees [from Azerbaijan] in the country. We’re still working with the figure of over 250,000, but I’ve heard anecdotal evidence that it might be as low as 80-90,000. It’s significantly smaller as well. Does anybody know?

KE: No one knows, but UNHCR is holding a survey now and I think that the number of refugees in Armenia will also be lowered quite a lot as well. The Government has its figure, but we think that it’s too high and UNHCR is absolutely certain that this number will go down after the survey is completed this year.

OK: At the moment there’s a lot of talk about the return of IDPs in Azerbaijan and refugees in Armenia to their former homes in and around Nagorno Karabakh once a peace deal is signed. Most recently, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State referred to this issue and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) is also including the matter on its agenda. Is the Norwegian Refugee Council and UNHCR involved in this matter?

KE: No, in Armenia we are not. However, our office in Baku is looking into this very carefully, of course. It should happen, but the situation in Azerbaijan is very different from that in Armenia because here we’re still struggling with the economy, whereas Azerbaijan has become very, very rich. If something were to happen regarding Nagorno Karabakh or the areas surrounding it, that would have to happen after some kind of peace deal.

OK: When some people talk of the return of IDPs to territory surrounding Nagorno Karabakh, and we’re talking about Azerbaijanis and Kurds, some Armenians don’t understand why there should be the “right to return” included in any peace deal. Maybe this is a political question, perhaps, but in your opinion, why is it important that refugees and IDPs have the “right to return?”

KE: Well, lets put Nagorno Karabakh aside and talk about the area surrounding it. As far as I understand, and this is accepted by Armenia as well, that land is considered to be an occupied area — a security zone around Karabakh. If there was an agreement then I guess that this area surrounding Karabakh would be given back to the Azeris. I don’t know much about this, but I think that this would be the situation.

If this happened, then of course the people that lived there would be entitled to return to their homes. That’s the way I see it.

Anyway, the full interview can be read online here, and there’s also an article on moves to find a solution to the Karabakh conflict by local analyst Tatul Hakobyan here. According to recent news reports, the CE, EU and US are still undaunted by the failure to achieve a much anticipated breakthrough in ending the deadlock over Nagorno Karabakh.

However, nothing is certain as to whether 2006 will herald a long anticipated pece deal that should go some way in bringing peace and stability to part of the South Caucasus region.

Refugee, Silikyan, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

Refugee children, Silikyan, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004