Montenegro Precedent for Karabakh?
Wednesday, May 31st, 2006
Azerbaijani Prisoner of War (PoW), Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994
RFE/RL reports that the Armenian Foreign Ministry has welcomed Montenegro’s 21 May referendum to determine whether it should declare independence from Serbia. The statement comes just days before the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents are due to meet once again in the hope that a framework agreement to resolve the long standing conflict over Nagorno Karabakh can be agreed upon.
Central to the current proposal on the table is a similar referendum that would be held in Karabakh 10-15 years in the future.
For official Yerevan, the Montenegro referendum sets another important precedent of the principle of self-determination of peoples superseding that of territorial integrity of states. Leaders of some of Armenia’s main political parties said last week that its outcome will make it easier for the Karabakh Armenians to win international recognition of their secession from Azerbaijan.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry statement said: “In this peaceful separation, Armenia considers particularly important the fact that the Montenegrin people’s right to self-determination was expressed by means of a referendum, which proves that in international relations referendum remains a universally accepted and civilized way of resolving such problems.â€
The statement clearly referred to an international peace plan currently considered by the parties to the Karabakh conflict. The plan reportedly calls for a referendum on Karabakh’s status within 10 to 15 years from the start of a gradual Armenian withdrawal from six of the seven Azerbaijani districts surrounding the disputed enclave. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be facing growing international pressure to accept this formula.
Meanwhile, according to RFE/RL’s Press Review, the government controlled Hayastani Hanrapetutyun newspaper says that 77 percent of Armenians believe that a speedy solution to the Karabakh conflict is “very important,” although some political forces consider that the idea of a referendum without appropiate security guarantees is fraught with danger.
Only 2 percent of 1,200 respondents believe it is unimportant. Seventy-two percent said Karabakh must become a part of Armenia, while the remaining 28 percent would agree to the region’s full independence. The paper says none of the respondents backed the idea of restoring Azerbaijani control over Karabakh.
“Hayots Ashkhar†is less than enthusiastic about the peace plan which Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliev are expected to discuss in Bucharest early next week. The paper says the deal would give a mere “promise of a referendum written on paper†to the Karabakh Armenians and an “uncertain military-political situation not guaranteed by anyone†to Armenia. The paper quotes a spokesman for the Dashnaktsutyun party, Giro Manoyan, as saying that the mediators should specify what will happen if Azerbaijan rejects the referendum after signing the peace deal.
“Hayastani Hanrapetutyun†quotes the speaker of the Karabakh parliament, Ashot Ghulian, as indicating in an interview with a Russian online publication that he is not against the referendum option. “I am sure that our people would vote in the same way as they did 15 years ago,†says Ghulian.
Certainly, the momentum for peace is still there with the international community stressing the need for a resolution in an almost unprecedented manner. RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan has written an article on this generally accepted conclusion for the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor. Incidently, I’d like to stress that I place great value and importance on Emil’s work in general so it’s always worth paying attention to his analysis.
The United States, Russia, and France are stepping up pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan in a last-ditch attempt to secure a framework agreement settling the Karabakh conflict this year. The three powers co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group have set the stage for yet another Armenian-Azerbaijani summit that could prove decisive in eliminating the number one source of instability in the South Caucasus.
Official Baku and Yerevan announced last week that Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharian will meet for a second time in less than four months on the sidelines of a high-level forum of Black Sea states that is scheduled to take place in Bucharest on June 4-6. All signs suggest that the two leaders are as close to striking a compromise deal as ever. Their failure to do so would be an enormous setback that would keep the bitter territorial dispute unresolved at least until 2009.
High-ranking French, Russian, and U.S. diplomats underscored this reality as they paid an extraordinary joint visit to the Azerbaijani and Armenian capitals on May 24-25. (Such trips are usually made by lower-level diplomats representing the two states.) In a statement issued after talks with Aliyev and Kocharian, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, and a senior French Foreign Ministry official, Pierre Morel, emphasized that “now is the time for the sides to reach agreement on the basic principles of a settlement.†The conflicting parties, they said, are now “at the point where a mutually beneficial agreement is achievable.â€
We should know more within the next week. Until then, Emil’s article is here.




















